Likely phase
Pending reviewed modelWill classify conditions such as stretched expansion, liquidity squeeze, buyer exhaustion, correction, stress downturn, or early recovery.
National view
Risk heat layer
Downturn risk
All states
Downturn risk score
Blends stress, employment deterioration, weaker sales momentum, rising stock or vacancy, supply risk, and confidence.
Scenario values show how the interface behaves. Real values will come from approved ABS, DEWR, state sales, RBA/APRA, and selected enrichment sources.
Market phase model
Cycle predictions
This page is reserved for the approved macro-cycle model: prices, inflation, rates, liquidity, credit, jobs, supply, immigration, population age structure, and rental pressure. Until reviewed source ingestion exists, it stays explanatory and avoids forecasts, valuations, lending guidance, or property advice.
Direction pressure
Not yet scoredWill compare demand, supply, credit, labour-market, immigration, demographic, and rental signals by geography where sources allow.
Confidence
Source-gatedWill fall when signals conflict, sources are stale, geography mapping is weak, or inputs are not reviewed for public display.
Downturn flags
What turns an area red?
- Total stock rises while new listings are normal or falling.
- Days on market and vendor discounting both trend higher.
- Mortgage stress, arrears, or unemployment accelerate together.
- Price-to-income and repayment-to-income stay stretched after demand weakens.
Upturn flags
What turns an area green?
- Listings stay tight and sales volume recovers from a low base.
- Vacancy is low, rents are firm, and employment is stable.
- Building approvals lag population growth or household formation.
- Affordability improves without a local jobs shock.
Free-source baseline
First data targets
Rankings
States to watch
Drilldown
Significant places
Reviewed derived indicators
SALM and SQM scoring evidence
Prototype/review-state dashboard. These are reviewed derived indicators, not official forecasts, valuations, lending guidance, or property advice.
DEWR SALM local scoring
Loading SALM scoring status.
SQM derived public-page indicators
Loading SQM derived status.
Evidence model
What data this will use
Market pressure
Listings, stock-on-market, vacancy, asking rents, and stale-listing pressure. SQM values shown here are reviewed derived indicators with source link-backs.
Prices and turnover
State Valuer-General and land registry sales data for median price, sales volume, turnover, and price momentum where licences allow derived outputs.
Income and household structure
ABS Census and ABS Data by Region for household income, single/dual-income proxies, couple families with/without children, lone-person households, rent, mortgage repayments, and tenure.
Macro stress
DEWR Small Area Labour Markets for unemployment, ABS Building Approvals for supply pipeline, and RBA/APRA for arrears and credit-condition overlays. SALM values shown here are reviewed local scoring indicators.
Source attribution